Dale City, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

876
FXUS61 KLWX 071910
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
310 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A couple of showers are developing over northern West Virginia
and appear to be moving in the direction of Pendleton County in
West Virginia and points to the southeast. Additional showers or
a thunderstorm could develop in parts of the central Shenandoah
Valley and Virginia Piedmont where a cold front is adjacent. High
pressure will bring cooler and drier conditions to the region
tonight through Tuesday before hot and humid conditions return
later this week along with thunderstorm chances.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and a thunderstorm or two will develop along a
  surface front into early this evening near I-64. The front
  will push south of the region overnight.

- 2) Cooler conditions anticipated Monday into Tuesday.

- 3) Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances return mid to
  late week, with heat index values possibly approaching 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a thunderstorm or two will develop
along a surface front into early this evening near I-64. The
front will push south of the region overnight.

A couple of showers and a thunderstorm or two could develop in
parts of the central Shenandoah Valley and Virginia Piedmont
where the front is stretched across the regions. The I-64
corridor could be affect by this convection. The main threats
will be 55-65 mph wind gusts and small hail in the strongest
thunderstorms. The front is expected to continue to move
southward overnight tonight and through the day Monday. Cooler
temperatures will evolve overnight with high pressure moving
in from the northwest.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler conditions anticipated Monday into
Tuesday.

High pressure is expected to build into the Mid- Atlantic early
this week in the wake of the front. Cooler and drier air will
work its way into the region. Sure our temperatures may still be
a couple of degrees above average, but should be a couple of
degrees cooler than the past 2 days and the humidity should be
less too. High pressure moves to the east later Tuesday to allow
for an isolated shower or two to possibly develop in the
Alleghenies with the next disturbance.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances return mid
to late week, with heat index values possibly approaching 100.

Heat will begin to build Wednesday as the surface high moves off the
coast. Ensemble temperature plots suggest Thursday and Friday will
be the hottest days with temperatures potentially well into the
90s. The heat index may rise above 100 degrees in some areas as dew
points will be higher these days compared to some of our recent hot
days.

The higher theta-e airmass will arrive on Wednesday as well, with
several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms spreading
across the area. Beyond that, there are uncertainties with how
strong mid/upper level ridging will be, and when exactly shortwaves
may approach from the northwest. In the end, there is some shower
and thunderstorm potential (mainly diurnal) Thursday through
Saturday, even if it is ultimately terrain-driven and limited in
coverage. There may be some severe weather risk given the heat and
humidity, although it may be isolated due to relatively weak shear
(assuming a stronger trough does not unfold).

A cold front will approach from the north over the weekend, although
it may not have much of a southward push. The upper level pattern
will be flattening, however, so temperatures should trend down a
little.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions through Tuesday. A brief heavy shower or
thunderstorm could develop or makes its way near CHO but there
is low confidence of one impacting the terminal later this
afternoon. Winds northwest becoming southeast around 10 knots
through tomorrow at the terminals with high pressure building.
The winds should shift to the south once the high moves east on
Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evenings of
Wednesday through Friday. Winds likely remain 10 kt or less out of
the south or west.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect for the upper and middle Tidal Potomac, as
well as for the northern and central Chesapeake Bay waters
through early this evening. Winds northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts
higher through this evening, becoming northeast overnight and
Monday. Winds becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late Monday
through Tuesday.

Southerly flow may peak Wednesday into Wednesday night, so Small
Craft Advisories may be needed. Overall winds may trend lighter
Thursday and Friday out of the south or west.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538-542.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/DHOF
AVIATION...ADS/KLW/DHOF
MARINE...ADS/KLW/DHOF